the wire — the call before each show (RSS) ↗
· The Phish Edition · Wednesday, December 30, 2026 · an almanac, printed as they play
Think you can out-call the AI? Tap the songs you bet Phish plays tonight, 🔒 lock your surest one, 🎲 dare a deep cut for bonus — then watch the morning-after grade. No signup: you get a ticket stub to check tomorrow.
Tonight’s picks are in — the wall’s up. Results post the morning after the show. Got a stub? Check it below.
No show on the board right now. When the next one’s announced, this is where you call it before the AI does.
Got a ticket stub? Check your night.
The AI’s whole hand, face-up before the show — posted early and held. The only thing that moves before the lock: songs the band just played drop off once last night’s show grades. Then it seals exactly as shown.
FILED MON OCT 12 · PROVISIONAL UNTIL 5:00 PM ET WED
⚿ Almost there — check your inbox and tap the link to confirm.
Not a season or all-time average — early club sets and today’s long-jam two-sets aren’t the same animal, so an all-years number would lie. We take the last 12 shows of the same type (a real two-set night vs a festival / one-set), count the songs in each, and average — rounded to the nearest song. As-of only: it never counts a show that hasn’t happened yet, so it’s the same number we could have posted that morning.
the 12 two-set shows it averaged (songs each, newest first)
Then the room gets a say: Madison Square Garden ran 20.8 across its last 96 two-set nights here, so we lean the rolling 17 toward it — a venue never gets more than half the vote, so it informs the night without overriding it. That lands at ~19.
Rolling 16.6 → 17, leaned to ~19 for the room. The count is a call too — the Reckoning sets what we called next to what they actually played. Song counts only here — never a setlist (those live at phish.net).
You against the AI. Every fan who plays seals a call before doors and rides the same ledger as it — base hit +1, a landed 🔒 Lock +3, a cold 🎲 Bold deep cut +5. Claim your stub to put a name on a card; beat the AI’s line and you’ve out-called it.
Claimed names only (anonymous picks still check their own stub). The AI and The Crowd (every fan’s picks pooled) ride along as benchmark cards — finish a season above the AI’s line and you’ve beaten it. Points post the morning after each show.
2026-10-09 — how the panel called it against what they played. Most songs called wins the night — honest as the morning.
The take — AI outclassed the crowd with a hit rate that swung big on key songs like "Ghost," "Runaway Jim," and "Tweezer," securing its victory by calling three of the eighteen tunes correctly.
See every lab’s full call from this night — the back issue →
★ Last time at Madison Square Garden — Jul 29, 2026 · 20 songs. the setlist at phish.net →
Our call for how tonight bookends — the most likely OPENER, ENCORE, and set-CLOSER, weighed by who’s hot AND who tends to fill the role. A separate bet from the setlist; graded Saturday against what actually played.
Crowd Control · Soul Shakedown Party · The Star-Spangled Banner
Rocky Top · Free Bird · Show of Life
Walls of the Cave · Starship Trooper Jam · Moonage Daydream
Presence × role-rate, computed as-of tonight — no peeking at the result. The opener & encore call is graded after the show.
Repertoire regulars the band is overdue to dust off — ranked by how many of their OWN typical gaps they’ve blown past, not by raw time cold. Six shows cold means nothing for a rarity and a lot for a song they usually play every three. Smart money, not a long shot.
| song | cold | usual gap | overdue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poor Heart | 94 | 6.0 | 10.0× |
| My Sweet One | 89 | 7.1 | 10.0× |
| The Oh Kee Pa Ceremony | 114 | 8.1 | 10.0× |
| Uncle Pen | 362 | 6.9 | 10.0× |
| The Curtain | 206 | 14.6 | 10.0× |
| Take the 'A' Train | 1355 | 5.4 | 10.0× |
Cadence counted from phish.net — the “overdue” multiple is shows-cold ÷ the song’s usual interval. Almanac fun, not a wager.
The deep freeze — real regulars that haven’t surfaced in ages. A morning line just for fun (no money, just glory); the longer the wait, the longer the odds. If one of these drops, the room comes unglued.
Nobody’s reaching for the deep freeze tonight — the labs are playing the hits. The long shots below are still lurking.
| song | cold | last seen | the line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donna Lee | 1392 | 1993-07-25 | 499-1 |
| Take the 'A' Train | 1355 | 1994-04-13 | 499-1 |
| Memories | 1295 | 1994-07-06 | 499-1 |
| If I Only Had a Brain | 1179 | 1995-11-16 | 499-1 |
| Acoustic Army | 1164 | 1995-12-08 | 499-1 |
| Caravan | 1082 | 1996-12-29 | 499-1 |
| All Things Reconsidered | 1071 | 1997-02-23 | 499-1 |
| Amazing Grace | 957 | 1998-10-03 | 499-1 |
Counted from phish.net, never reprinted — the line is a bit of almanac fun, not a wager.
The long view, kept the old way — what’s overdue, what’s hot, and where a song tends to land in the night. Counted from phish.net, not reprinted from it.
| Tweezer | 17 |
| Character Zero | 8 |
| Possum | 7 |
| Run Like an Antelope | 7 |
| Harry Hood | 7 |
tends to start the nightCrowd Control · The Star-Spangled Banner · Buried Alive
tends to send you homeWalls of the Cave · Run Like an Antelope · Drift While You're Sleeping
Trends are our compilation of phish.net event facts — we link out, never reprint a setlist. browse the source at phish.net →
We don’t ask the AI to be clever on its own — it’s handed the house/crstlbl statistical read first, then asked to make its own call. Same rules, same evidence, same format every time. That’s why we can show you exactly what we ask.
We show the shape, not the data dump — the setlists themselves live at phish.net (we link, never reprint). The candidate pool, recent setlists, and the internal forecast are filled fresh from our KB for each show.
Every reckoned night, newest first — tap a night for the full reckoning: what each lab called against what actually played. The record never scrolls away.
You’ve seen tonight’s calls — get the morning line in your inbox. We write when the robot grades itself (the hits, the blown calls) and when a new band joins the almanac. Nothing else, ever.
⚿ Almost there. Check your inbox and tap the link to confirm — then you’re on the list.
No spam, ever. We will never sell or share your address, and we only write when there’s real news about this site — a new band edition, a feature, the occasional spectacular miss. Unsubscribe any time.
We’re fans first — these folks do the real work. Go give them a look.