⌛ Guesses lock in --h --m --s A sealed call for Hard Rock Live At Etess Arena · Atlantic City, NJ goes on the record when this clock hits zero — watch the robots stick out their necks.

the wire — the call before each show (RSS) ↗

15 reckonings on the books Vol. I · No. 16

Next Setlist

· The Widespread Panic Edition ·  Friday, August 14, 2026 · an almanac, printed as they play

Adm. One — No. 16
★ nextsetlist ★
Hard Rock Live At Etess Arena — Atlantic City, NJ
FRI · AUGUST 14, 2026

Play Along

♯ call it yourself

Think you can out-call the robots? Tap the songs you bet Widespread Panic plays tonight, 🔒 lock your surest one, 🎲 dare a deep cut for bonus — then watch the morning-after grade. No signup: you get a ticket stub to check tomorrow.

Got a ticket stub? Check your night.

The Big Board

★ 6 guessers · provisional

Every lab’s whole hand, face-up before the show — posted early and held. The only thing that moves before the lock: songs the band just played drop off once last night’s show grades. Then it seals exactly as shown.

FILED SAT JUL 25 · PROVISIONAL UNTIL 5:00 PM ET FRI

The House Linem2 · statistical — the number to beat21 songs
Love Tractor80% Ride Me High77% Tall Boy74% Little by Little73% We Walk Each Other Home73% King Baby72% Drums71% All Time Low71% +13 more
the full line →
crstlbl
learned · on-box
⌛ Provisional
Hard Rock Live At Etess ArenaAtlantic City, NJAug 14Fri 5:00 PM ET
  1. 1Drums49%
  2. 2Ain't Life Grand48%
  3. 3Hatfield46%
  4. 4Driving Song45%
  5. 5Little by Little44%
  6. 6Papa's Home43%
  7. 7Fishwater43%
  8. 8C. Brown43%
  9. 9Space Wrangler42%
  10. 10Airplane41%
  11. 11Little Kin40%
  12. 12Holden Oversoul39%
  13. 13Pleas39%
  14. 14Wondering38%
  15. 15Stop Breakin' Down Blues37%
  16. 16You Got Yours37%
  17. 17Better Off36%
  18. 18One Arm Steve36%
  19. 19The Waker36%
  20. 20King Baby36%
  21. 21Send Your Mind †36%
1 lone call · 21 songsthe ball ↗
gpt
gpt-5.1 · cloud
⌛ Provisional
Hard Rock Live At Etess ArenaAtlantic City, NJAug 14Fri 5:00 PM ET
  1. 1Ain't Life Grand78%
  2. 2Fishwater72%
  3. 3Drums70%
  4. 4Driving Song69%
  5. 5Pilgrims67%
  6. 6Space Wrangler65%
  7. 7Chilly Water64%
  8. 8Climb to Safety63%
  9. 9Barstools and Dreamers60%
  10. 10Goodpeople †60%
  11. 11Henry Parsons Died58%
  12. 12Disco †57%
  13. 13Rock56%
  14. 14Surprise Valley56%
  15. 15Tie Your Shoes †55%
  16. 16Hatfield54%
  17. 17Wondering53%
  18. 18Rebirtha †52%
  19. 19Ribs and Whiskey50%
  20. 20Diner48%
  21. 21Travelin' Light48%
contrarian · 4 lone · 21 songs
local
qwen2.5:7b-instruct-q4_0 · local
⌛ Provisional
Hard Rock Live At Etess ArenaAtlantic City, NJAug 14Fri 5:00 PM ET
  1. 1Love Tractor †95%
  2. 2Ride Me High †90%
  3. 3Drums85%
  4. 4Pigeons80%
  5. 5Pleas75%
  6. 6Tall Boy †70%
  7. 7Greta †65%
  8. 8All Time Low †60%
  9. 9Ribs and Whiskey55%
  10. 10Little by Little50%
  11. 11King Baby45%
  12. 12We Walk Each Other Home †40%
  13. 13Space Wrangler35%
  14. 14Porch Song30%
  15. 15Chilly Water25%
  16. 16Driving Song20%
  17. 17Holden Oversoul15%
  18. 18Diner10%
  19. 19Ain't Life Grand8%
  20. 20Pilgrims7%
  21. 21Blackout Blues †6%
contrarian · 7 lone · 21 songs
medium
blend · every brain
⌛ Provisional
Hard Rock Live At Etess ArenaAtlantic City, NJAug 14Fri 5:00 PM ET
  1. 1Drums49%
  2. 2Ain't Life Grand48%
  3. 3Driving Song45%
  4. 4Space Wrangler42%
  5. 5Fishwater43%
  6. 6Little by Little44%
  7. 7Pleas39%
  8. 8Holden Oversoul39%
  9. 9Wondering38%
  10. 10King Baby36%
  11. 11Hatfield46%
  12. 12Papa's Home43%
  13. 13C. Brown43%
  14. 14Airplane41%
  15. 15Little Kin40%
  16. 16Stop Breakin' Down Blues37%
  17. 17You Got Yours37%
  18. 18Better Off36%
  19. 19One Arm Steve36%
  20. 20The Waker36%
plays the chalk · 20 songs
opus
claude-opus-4-5 · cloud
⌛ Provisional
Hard Rock Live At Etess ArenaAtlantic City, NJAug 14Fri 5:00 PM ET
  1. 1Fishwater85%
  2. 2Chilly Water82%
  3. 3Porch Song78%
  4. 4Drums77%
  5. 5Surprise Valley75%
  6. 6Ain't Life Grand74%
  7. 7Holden Oversoul73%
  8. 8Space Wrangler71%
  9. 9Driving Song70%
  10. 10Barstools and Dreamers68%
  11. 11Climb to Safety67%
  12. 12Rock65%
  13. 13Henry Parsons Died64%
  14. 14Travelin' Light63%
  15. 15I'm Not Alone †61%
  16. 16Pigeons58%
  17. 17Blue Indian †55%
  18. 18Red Hot Mama †54%
  19. 19Bear's Gone Fishin' †52%
  20. 20Wondering50%
  21. 21Up All Night †48%
contrarian · 5 lone · 21 songs
The People
fans vs. the robots
▶ Open seat

The robots have laid their cards. Your move. Tap in the setlist you’d call, lock it before the show — graded the morning after, same ledger as the bots.

open seat · no signupplay along ↗

† a lone call — no other lab took it. Most songs called the morning after wins the night.

Get the morning line in your inbox —

⚿ On the list — the call lands before each show. No spam, ever.

The over–under~20songs expected tonight — this reads as a full two-set night, and the last 12 two-set shows averaged 20.4. Each lab calls its 20 most likely; the count is a call too, settled in the Reckoning.
how this is figured

Not a season or all-time average — early club sets and today’s long-jam two-sets aren’t the same animal, so an all-years number would lie. We take the last 12 shows of the same type (a real two-set night vs a festival / one-set), count the songs in each, and average — rounded to the nearest song. As-of only: it never counts a show that hasn’t happened yet, so it’s the same number we could have posted that morning.

the 12 two-set shows it averaged (songs each, newest first)

Jul 2521 Jul 2421 Jul 2319 Jul 2120 Jul 1822 Jul 1720 Jul 1621 Jul 1121 Jul 1020 Jul 821 Jul 721 Jul 518

Average 20.4 → ~20. The count is a call too — the Reckoning sets what we called next to what they actually played. Song counts only here — never a setlist (those live at setlist.fm).

all 5 calledDrumsAin't Life GrandSpace WranglerDriving Song

4
top agreement · 5/5
7
boldest · local
17
lone bets on the board
songcrstlblgptlocalmediumopuscalled
Drums5/5
Ain't Life Grand5/5
Space Wrangler5/5
Driving Song5/5
Fishwater4/5
Wondering4/5
Holden Oversoul4/5
Chilly Water3/5
Pleas3/5
Hatfield3/5
Little by Little3/5
King Baby3/5
Pigeons2/5
Surprise Valley2/5
Climb to Safety2/5
Barstools and Dreamers2/5
Henry Parsons Died2/5
Rock2/5
Travelin' Light2/5
Porch Song2/5
Ribs and Whiskey2/5
Papa's Home2/5
C. Brown2/5
Airplane2/5
Little Kin2/5
Stop Breakin' Down Blues2/5
Pilgrims2/5
You Got Yours2/5
Better Off2/5
One Arm Steve2/5
The Waker2/5
Diner2/5

17 lone calls not shown here — marked † on the cards.

The People

★ fans vs the house

You against the machines. Every fan who plays seals a call before doors and rides the same ledger as the bots — base hit +1, a landed 🔒 Lock +3, a cold 🎲 Bold deep cut +5. Claim your stub to put a name on a card; beat the House line and you’ve out-called the robots.

1your name here
—ptscall it up top
first claimed fan takes this card
The House▲ The Line
80pts15 shows
the line to beat

No one’s claimed a card yet — the board’s wide open. Call tonight’s setlist up top, save your stub, and the morning after you’re the first name on the people’s ladder.

Last Night’s Reckoning

box score

2026-07-25 — how the panel called it against what they played. Most songs called wins the night — honest as the morning.

20
Played
10
Most called · 48%
called the mostmedium10/20 songs called
runner-upcrstlbl9/20 called
✓HitsAll Time Low · Bust It Big · Driving Song · Fishwater · Hatfield · Love Tractor · Porch Song · Space Wrangler · Walkin' (For Your Love) · We Walk Each Other Home
We don’t print the whole setlist here — that’s their story to tell. See the official record → the full setlist at setlist.fm →.

The take — Medium seized control of the setlist, delivering a dominant 10 correct calls and claiming victory over a field that largely floundered, with the House’s surprisingly accurate Porch Song the only notable deviation.

See every lab’s full call from this night — the back issue →

Every past reckoning — the back issues →

The Tune-Up

⚙ preseason · 1 shows

Before the real race, a dry run: each lab predicted the last 1 shows that already happened — leak-safe, seeing only what it would have the morning of each — and we scored them. A tune-up, not the main event.

⚠ exhibition · not sealed-ahead callsThese guesses were made after the shows played, purely to test the machines — they are not on the real ledger and win nothing. The sealed-ahead race, the one that counts, starts at the first live lock.
 LabWHitShows
1.housem2 · statistical145%1
2.opusclaude-opus-4-5 · cloud035%1
3.localqwen2.5:7b-instruct-q4_0 · local030%1
4.gptgpt-5.1 · cloud025%1
2026-06-14 · Merriweather Post Pavilion · 18 songs — won by house

house led the tune-up. The morning after the first live show, the real Standings below start filling in — and the field gets a shot to prove the warm-up wrong.

The Standings

✦ most nights won · most songs called

The labs, one ledger. Each seals its call before doors; the morning after, every pick is scored. Whoever calls the most of the setlist wins the night, and most nights won leads the race — average hit-rate settles ties. The standings never forget. Each name is a seat, not a fixed model — the brain behind it can change at any time (the current one rides on every card); models are interchangeable.

 GuesserWHitShows
1.mediumblend · every brain1136%12
2.opusclaude-opus-4-5 · cloud532%15
3.crstlbllearned · on-box441%12
4.housem2 · statistical333%15
5.gptgpt-5.1 · cloud226%15
6.localqwen2.5:7b-instruct-q4_0 · local020%11

How a night is won: whoever calls the most of the songs actually played that night wins it — the eye test, plain and simple. W is nights won; Hit is the share of a lab’s picks that landed. A tied night is shared — every lab that calls the most takes the win; hit-rate only orders the standings.

Most nights won leads; hit-rate breaks ties. Public pick-’em and your own bot are coming — soon you’ll seal a call before doors and ride the same ledger as the machines.

Tonight's Bookends

◆ opener & encore call

Our call for how tonight bookends — the most likely OPENER, ENCORE, and set-CLOSER, weighed by who’s hot AND who tends to fill the role. A separate bet from the setlist; graded Saturday against what actually played.

Likely Opener starts the night

Let's Get Down to Business · ARU/WSP Jam · A of D

Likely Encore the send-off

I'm So Glad · Dream Song · Expiration Day

Likely Closer caps a set

Chainsaw City · Life During Wartime · Travelin' Light

Presence × role-rate, computed as-of tonight — no peeking at the result. The opener & encore call is graded after the show.

The Due List

⏳ what’s overdue

Repertoire regulars the band is overdue to dust off — ranked by how many of their OWN typical gaps they’ve blown past, not by raw time cold. Six shows cold means nothing for a rarity and a lot for a song they usually play every three. Smart money, not a long shot.

songcoldusual gapoverdue
Weight of the World604.410.0×
It Ain't No Use1487.310.0×
She Caught the Katy and Left Me a Mule to Ride41613.710.0×
L.a.22915.510.0×
Solid Rock2747.510.0×
Feelin' Alright?68825.510.0×

Cadence counted from setlist.fm — the “overdue” multiple is shows-cold ÷ the song’s usual interval. Almanac fun, not a wager.

Bustout Watch

✶ the long shots

The deep freeze — real regulars that haven’t surfaced in ages. A morning line just for fun (no money, just glory); the longer the wait, the longer the odds. If one of these drops, the room comes unglued.

Nobody’s reaching for the deep freeze tonight — the labs are playing the hits. The long shots below are still lurking.

songcoldlast seenthe line
Sugaree29361988-10-02499-1
China Cat Sunflower28931989-02-01499-1
Not Fade Away28891989-02-14499-1
The Other One28871989-03-11499-1
Cryptical Envelopment28871989-03-11499-1
Me and My Uncle28791989-05-05499-1
I Know You Rider26001991-07-06499-1
Dog Song24441992-05-24499-1

Counted from setlist.fm, never reprinted — the line is a bit of almanac fun, not a wager.

The Question

❖ what we ask the robots

We don’t ask the labs to be clever — every lab in the race gets the identical question. Same rules, same evidence, same format; the only thing that changes is the model answering. That’s what makes the race fair — and why we can show you exactly what we ask.

You are a setlist handicapper for Widespread Panic. Predict the songs they will play at their NEXT show — one that has not happened yet. You win the night by calling the MOST of the actual setlist right, so name your best full set, not a timid few. RULES OF THIS BAND: — They almost never repeat a song within the same run. If it was just played in the last show or two, it is UNLIKELY tonight. — Favor songs hot in the current rotation, and songs that are “due” (gone a while but still regulars). — Aim for about [tonight’s expected set length] songs. CHOOSE ONLY FROM: [the hottest rotation songs in our KB] THE LAST FEW SETLISTS: [the last 8 shows, in play order] Return ONLY JSON: {"songs":[{"song":"…","confidence":0.0–1.0}, …]}

We show the shape, not the data dump — the setlists themselves live at setlist.fm (we link, never reprint). The candidate pool and recent setlists are filled fresh from our KB for each show.

Back Issues

❧ the rolling record · 15 on file

Every reckoned night, newest first — tap a night for the full reckoning: what each lab called against what actually played. The record never scrolls away.

Sat, Jul 25, 2026Orpheum Theatre — Los Angeles, CAmedium · 10/20 calledFri, Jul 24, 2026Orpheum Theatre — Los Angeles, CAhouse & medium · 9/21 calledThu, Jul 23, 2026Orpheum Theatre — Los Angeles, CAmedium · 10/19 calledTue, Jul 21, 2026Channel 24 — Sacramento, CAcrstlbl & opus & medium · 5/19 calledSat, Jul 18, 2026Fox Theater — Oakland, CAhouse & medium · 7/21 calledFri, Jul 17, 2026Fox Theater — Oakland, CAcrstlbl & medium · 7/19 calledThu, Jul 16, 2026Fox Theater — Oakland, CAmedium · 8/21 calledSat, Jul 11, 2026Hayden Homes Amphitheater — Bend, ORmedium · 7/21 calledFri, Jul 10, 2026Hayden Homes Amphitheater — Bend, ORmedium · 9/20 calledWed, Jul 8, 2026KettleHouse Amphitheater — Bonner, MTcrstlbl & house & gpt & medium · 4/14 calledTue, Jul 7, 2026KettleHouse Amphitheater — Bonner, MTopus · 8/21 calledSun, Jul 5, 2026Snow King Resort — Jackson, WYcrstlbl & medium & opus · 6/18 called

Every reckoning on the books — the full archive →

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