⌛ Guesses lock in --h --m --s A sealed call for Mempho Music Festival · Memphis, TN goes on the record when this clock hits zero — watch the robots stick out their necks.

the wire — the call before each show (RSS) ↗

20 reckonings on the books Vol. I · No. 21

Next Setlist

· The Widespread Panic Edition ·  Saturday, October 10, 2026 · an almanac, printed as they play

Adm. One — No. 21
★ nextsetlist ★
Mempho Music Festival — Memphis, TN
SAT · OCTOBER 10, 2026

Play Along

♯ call it yourself

Think you can out-call the AI? Tap the songs you bet Widespread Panic plays tonight, 🔒 lock your surest one, 🎲 dare a deep cut for bonus — then watch the morning-after grade. No signup: you get a ticket stub to check tomorrow.

Got a ticket stub? Check your night.

The Big Board

★ provisional

The AI’s whole hand, face-up before the show — posted early and held. The only thing that moves before the lock: songs the band just played drop off once last night’s show grades. Then it seals exactly as shown.

FILED SAT SEP 19 · PROVISIONAL UNTIL 5:00 PM ET SAT

The AI
gpt-5.1 · briefed by the house stats first
⌛ Provisional
Mempho Music FestivalMemphis, TNOct 10Sat 5:00 PM ET
  1. 1Drums55%
  2. 2Space Wrangler50%
  3. 3Fishwater47%
  4. 4Little by Little45%
  5. 5Surprise Valley44%
  6. 6Driving Song43%
  7. 7Hatfield43%
  8. 8Walkin' (For Your Love)42%
  9. 9Chilly Water40%
  10. 10Tall Boy39%
  11. 11Greta38%
  12. 12All Time Low37%
  13. 13Rebirtha36%
  14. 14Climb to Safety35%
14 songshow it’s built ↗
The People
you vs. the AI
▶ Open seat
  1. 1Emma Collins0
  2. 2Ryan Collins0
2 playing · beat the AI to winthe people ↗play along ↗
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The over–under~15songs expected tonight — this reads as a festival / one-set night, and the last 12 festival shows averaged 14.8. Each lab calls its 15 most likely; the count is a call too, settled in the Reckoning.
how this is figured

Not a season or all-time average — early club sets and today’s long-jam two-sets aren’t the same animal, so an all-years number would lie. We take the last 12 shows of the same type (a real two-set night vs a festival / one-set), count the songs in each, and average — rounded to the nearest song. As-of only: it never counts a show that hasn’t happened yet, so it’s the same number we could have posted that morning.

the 12 festival shows it averaged (songs each, newest first)

Apr 3013 Jun 206 Apr 2518 Oct 216 Oct 115 Oct 219 Oct 116 Jul 1820 Jan 232 Jul 1317 May 219 Aug 2416

Average 14.8 → ~15. The count is a call too — the Reckoning sets what we called next to what they actually played. Song counts only here — never a setlist (those live at setlist.fm).

The People

★ fans vs the AI

You against the AI. Every fan who plays seals a call before doors and rides the same ledger as it — base hit +1, a landed 🔒 Lock +3, a cold 🎲 Bold deep cut +5. Claim your stub to put a name on a card; beat the AI’s line and you’ve out-called it.

Last show’s sharpest fan
Ryan Collins — 0 pts · topped 1 other
The AI▲ The Line
13pts2 shows
the line to beat
1Emma Collins
0pts1 show
claimed fan
2Ryan Collins
0pts1 show
claimed fan
The Crowd☀ The Crowd
0pts1 show
every fan, pooled

Claimed names only (anonymous picks still check their own stub). The AI and The Crowd (every fan’s picks pooled) ride along as benchmark cards — finish a season above the AI’s line and you’ve beaten it. Points post the morning after each show.

Last Night’s Reckoning

box score

2026-07-25 — how the panel called it against what they played. Most songs called wins the night — honest as the morning.

21
Played
10
Most called · 48%
called the mostmedium10/21 songs called
runner-uplocal8/21 called
✓HitsAll Time Low · Bust It Big · Driving Song · Fishwater · Hatfield · Love Tractor · Porch Song · Space Wrangler · Walkin' (For Your Love) · We Walk Each Other Home
We don’t print the whole setlist here — that’s their story to tell. See the official record → the full setlist at setlist.fm →.

The take — Medium seized control of the setlist, delivering a dominant 10 correct calls and claiming victory over a field that largely floundered, with the House’s surprisingly accurate Porch Song the only notable deviation.

See every lab’s full call from this night — the back issue →

Every past reckoning — the back issues →

Tonight's Bookends

◆ opener & encore call

Our call for how tonight bookends — the most likely OPENER, ENCORE, and set-CLOSER, weighed by who’s hot AND who tends to fill the role. A separate bet from the setlist; graded Saturday against what actually played.

Likely Opener starts the night

ARU/WSP Jam · Let's Get Down to Business · Send Your Mind

Likely Encore the send-off

Keep Me in Your Heart · End of the Show · May Your Glass Be Filled

Likely Closer caps a set

Sewing Machine · Climb to Safety · Chilly Water

Presence × role-rate, computed as-of tonight — no peeking at the result. The opener & encore call is graded after the show.

The Due List

⏳ what’s overdue

Repertoire regulars the band is overdue to dust off — ranked by how many of their OWN typical gaps they’ve blown past, not by raw time cold. Six shows cold means nothing for a rarity and a lot for a song they usually play every three. Smart money, not a long shot.

songcoldusual gapoverdue
Weight of the World654.410.0×
It Ain't No Use1537.310.0×
She Caught the Katy and Left Me a Mule to Ride42113.710.0×
L.a.23415.510.0×
Solid Rock2797.510.0×
Thin Air (Smells Like Mississippi)11411.210.0×

Cadence counted from setlist.fm — the “overdue” multiple is shows-cold ÷ the song’s usual interval. Almanac fun, not a wager.

Bustout Watch

✶ the long shots

The deep freeze — real regulars that haven’t surfaced in ages. A morning line just for fun (no money, just glory); the longer the wait, the longer the odds. If one of these drops, the room comes unglued.

Nobody’s reaching for the deep freeze tonight — the labs are playing the hits. The long shots below are still lurking.

songcoldlast seenthe line
Sugaree29411988-10-02499-1
China Cat Sunflower28981989-02-01499-1
Not Fade Away28941989-02-14499-1
The Other One28921989-03-11499-1
Cryptical Envelopment28921989-03-11499-1
Me and My Uncle28841989-05-05499-1
I Know You Rider26051991-07-06499-1
Dog Song24491992-05-24499-1

Counted from setlist.fm, never reprinted — the line is a bit of almanac fun, not a wager.

The Question

❖ what we ask the AI

We don’t ask the AI to be clever on its own — it’s handed the house/crstlbl statistical read first, then asked to make its own call. Same rules, same evidence, same format every time. That’s why we can show you exactly what we ask.

You are a setlist handicapper for Widespread Panic. Predict the songs they will play at their NEXT show — one that has not happened yet. You win the night by calling the MOST of the actual setlist right, so name your best full set, not a timid few. RULES OF THIS BAND: — They almost never repeat a song within the same run. If it was just played in the last show or two, it is UNLIKELY tonight. — Favor songs hot in the current rotation, and songs that are “due” (gone a while but still regulars). — Aim for about [tonight’s expected set length] songs. OUR INTERNAL MODEL’S FORECAST: [the house + crstlbl statistical models’ blended ranked read — weigh it heavily, but you may deviate] CHOOSE ONLY FROM: [the hottest rotation songs in our KB] THE LAST FEW SETLISTS: [the last 8 shows, in play order] Return ONLY JSON: {"songs":[{"song":"…","confidence":0.0–1.0}, …]}

We show the shape, not the data dump — the setlists themselves live at setlist.fm (we link, never reprint). The candidate pool, recent setlists, and the internal forecast are filled fresh from our KB for each show.

Back Issues

❧ the rolling record · 20 on file

Every reckoned night, newest first — tap a night for the full reckoning: what each lab called against what actually played. The record never scrolls away.

Sat, Sep 19, 2026Live Oak Bank Pavilion — Wilmington, NChouse · 7/21 calledFri, Sep 18, 2026Live Oak Bank Pavilion — Wilmington, NCgpt · 7/18 calledSun, Aug 16, 2026Hard Rock Live at the Etess Arena — Atlantic City, NJmedium · 8/20 calledSat, Aug 15, 2026Hard Rock Live at the Etess Arena — Atlantic City, NJcrstlbl & medium · 7/22 calledFri, Aug 14, 2026Hard Rock Live at the Etess Arena — Atlantic City, NJtrial · 6/20 calledSat, Jul 25, 2026Orpheum Theatre — Los Angeles, CAmedium · 10/21 calledFri, Jul 24, 2026Orpheum Theatre — Los Angeles, CAhouse & medium · 9/21 calledThu, Jul 23, 2026Orpheum Theatre — Los Angeles, CAmedium · 10/19 calledTue, Jul 21, 2026Channel 24 — Sacramento, CAcrstlbl & opus & medium · 5/20 calledSat, Jul 18, 2026Fox Theater — Oakland, CAhouse & medium · 7/22 calledFri, Jul 17, 2026Fox Theater — Oakland, CAcrstlbl & medium · 7/20 calledThu, Jul 16, 2026Fox Theater — Oakland, CAmedium · 8/21 called

Every reckoning on the books — the full archive →

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