⌛ Guesses lock in --h --m --s A sealed call for Madison Square Garden · New York, NY goes on the record when this clock hits zero — watch the robot put its neck out.

the wire — the call before each show (RSS) ↗

No. I — an almanac of guesses Vol. I, No. 1

Next Setlist

· The Goose Edition ·  Friday, June 19, 2026 · an almanac, printed nightly

Adm. One — No I
★ nextsetlist ★
Madison Square Garden — New York, NY
FRI · JUNE 19, 2026

The Big Board

★ 6 guessers · provisional

Every lab’s whole hand, face-up before the show — frozen as posted, sealed exactly as you see it when the clock up top hits zero.

The over–under~15songs expected tonight — this reads as a full two-set night, and the last 12 two-set shows averaged 11.8, then leaned toward Madison Square Garden — it ran 19.0 last time here, so the rolling 12 nudges to 15. Each lab calls its 15 most likely; the count is a call too, settled in the Reckoning.
how this is figured

Not a season or all-time average — early club sets and today’s long-jam two-sets aren’t the same animal, so an all-years number would lie. We take the last 12 shows of the same type (a real two-set night vs a festival / one-set), count the songs in each, and average — rounded to the nearest song. As-of only: it never counts a show that hasn’t happened yet, so it’s the same number we could have posted that morning.

the 12 two-set shows it averaged (songs each, newest first)

Jun 1615 Jun 1515 Jun 1312 Jun 311 Jun 111 May 3012 May 2810 May 2713 May 2511 May 2311 May 2211 May 910

Then the room gets a say: Madison Square Garden ran 19.0 last time here, so we lean the rolling 12 toward it — a venue never gets more than half the vote, so it informs the night without overriding it. That lands at ~15.

Rolling 11.8 → 12, leaned to ~15 for the room. The count is a call too — the Reckoning sets what we called next to what they actually played. Song counts only here — never a setlist (those live at El Goose).

FILED WED JUN 17 · PROVISIONAL UNTIL 5:00 PM ET FRI

the board leans · 4/6MadhuvanRockdaleArrow

3
top agreement · 4/6
5
boldest · gpt
20
lone bets on the board
songhousedeepseekgeminigptopusqwencalled
Madhuvan4/6
Rockdale4/6
Arrow4/6
Hot Tea3/6
Echo of a Rose3/6
Yeti3/6
Wysteria Lane3/6
Slow Ready3/6
Your Direction3/6
Time to Flee3/6
Seekers on the Ridge pt I3/6
Factory Fiction3/6
Honeybee3/6
Arcadia2/6
All I Need2/6
Thatch2/6
Pancakes2/6
The Empress Of Organos2/6
Jed Stone2/6
Turned Clouds2/6
Into the Myst2/6
Don't Do It2/6
Crosseyed & Painless2/6
Disco Inferno2/6
The Old Man's Boat2/6
Atlas2/6
Pumped Up Kicks2/6

20 lone calls not shown here — marked † on the cards.

house
m2 · statistical
⌛ Provisional
  1. 1Rockdale59%
  2. 2Borne †56%
  3. 3Arrow54%
  4. 4Silver Rising †53%
  5. 5The Empress Of Organos53%
  6. 6Good2B †52%
  7. 7Thatch52%
  8. 8Big Modern! †52%
  9. 9Pancakes49%
  10. 10Jed Stone48%
  11. 11Madhuvan48%
  12. 12Wysteria Lane48%
  13. 13Slow Ready44%
  14. 14Echo of a Rose42%
  15. 15Your Direction42%
contrarian · 4 lone · 15 songs
deepseek
deepseek-reasoner · cloud
⌛ Provisional
  1. 1Arrow35%
  2. 2Rockdale30%
  3. 3Yeti30%
  4. 4All I Need25%
  5. 5Hot Tea25%
  6. 6Slow Ready25%
  7. 7Dr. Darkness †20%
  8. 8Into the Myst20%
  9. 9Seekers on the Ridge pt I20%
  10. 10Seekers on the Ridge pt II †20%
  11. 11Turned Clouds20%
  12. 12Honeybee15%
  13. 13Jed Stone15%
  14. 14Madalena †15%
  15. 15Your Direction15%
contrarian · 3 lone · 15 songs
gemini
gemini-2.5-pro · cloud
⌛ Provisional
  1. 1Hot Tea75%
  2. 2All I Need70%
  3. 3Yeti65%
  4. 4Echo of a Rose60%
  5. 5Wysteria Lane50%
  6. 6Madhuvan48%
  7. 7Time to Flee45%
  8. 8Rockdale42%
  9. 9Arrow40%
  10. 10Thatch38%
  11. 11The Old Man's Boat30%
  12. 12Seekers on the Ridge pt I28%
  13. 13Pancakes25%
  14. 14Atlas22%
  15. 15The Empress Of Organos20%
plays the chalk · 15 songs
gpt
gpt-4o · cloud
⌛ Provisional
  1. 1Arcadia90%
  2. 2Tumble †80%
  3. 3Dripfield †70%
  4. 4Hot Tea70%
  5. 5Jive II †60%
  6. 6Madhuvan60%
  7. 7Rosewood Heart †50%
  8. 8Wysteria Lane50%
  9. 9Don't Do It40%
  10. 10Factory Fiction40%
  11. 11Atlas Dogs †30%
  12. 12Time to Flee30%
  13. 13Crosseyed & Painless20%
  14. 14Disco Inferno20%
  15. 15Pumped Up Kicks20%
contrarian · 5 lone · 15 songs
opus
claude-opus-4-1 · cloud
⌛ Provisional
  1. 1Rockdale65%
  2. 2Arrow62%
  3. 3Madhuvan58%
  4. 4Yeti55%
  5. 5Flodown †52%
  6. 6Echo of a Rose48%
  7. 7Slow Ready45%
  8. 8Same Old Shenanigans †42%
  9. 9Everything Must Go †40%
  10. 10Your Direction38%
  11. 11Turned Clouds35%
  12. 12Into the Myst32%
  13. 13Seekers on the Ridge pt I30%
  14. 14Factory Fiction28%
  15. 15Honeybee25%
contrarian · 3 lone · 15 songs
qwen
qwen2.5:7b · local
⌛ Provisional
  1. 1Crosseyed & Painless20%
  2. 2Disco Inferno18%
  3. 3Escape (The Piña Colada Song) †15%
  4. 4Give It Time †15%
  5. 5Switchin' †13%
  6. 6Arcadia12%
  7. 7Honeybee12%
  8. 8Atlas10%
  9. 9Me & My Uncle †9%
  10. 10Pumped Up Kicks8%
  11. 11Factory Fiction7%
  12. 12Don't Do It6%
  13. 13Time to Flee5%
  14. 14The Way It Is †4%
  15. 15The Old Man's Boat3%
contrarian · 5 lone · 15 songs

† a lone call — no other lab took it. Lowest Brier the morning after wins the night.

★ Last time at Madison Square Garden — Jun 28, 2025 · 19 songs — a long one. the setlist at El Goose →

Bustout Watch

✶ the long shots

The deep freeze — real regulars that haven’t surfaced in ages. A morning line just for fun (no money, just glory); the longer the wait, the longer the odds. If one of these drops, the room comes unglued.

★ Bold bets on tonight’s board
  • gpt & qwen calling Crosseyed & Painless — cold 251 shows
  • gpt & qwen calling Disco Inferno — cold 251 shows
  • qwen calling Escape (The Piña Colada Song) — cold 147 shows lone
  • qwen calling Switchin' — cold 135 shows lone
  • deepseek & opus & qwen calling Honeybee — cold 63 shows
songcoldlast seenthe line
Crosseyed & Painless2512022-12-18376-1
Disco Inferno2512022-12-18376-1
Escape (The Piña Colada Song)1472024-06-18220-1
Switchin'1352024-09-03202-1
Honeybee632025-06-1994-1
Atlas482025-09-1472-1
Me & My Uncle412025-09-2762-1
Pumped Up Kicks372025-10-0356-1

Counted from El Goose, never reprinted — the line is a bit of almanac fun, not a wager.

How the Almanac Works

✦ the loop

No call is sealed yet — the next one locks at 5:00 PM local on the next show date. Here’s the whole game.

Step one
Seal

At 5:00 PM show-local — after last night’s setlist is in, before tonight’s downbeat — the robot commits a ranked guess at the night’s songs. It can’t change after that.

Step two
Play

The band plays. We don’t peek and we don’t edit — the guess is already sealed and timestamped before a single note.

Step three
Reckon

The morning after, we grade the guess against what they actually played — hits, misses, and a Brier score, out loud, in public.

The Tune-Up

⚙ preseason · 8 shows

Before the real race, a dry run: each lab predicted the last 8 shows that already happened — leak-safe, seeing only what it would have the morning of each — and we scored them. A tune-up, not the main event.

⚠ exhibition · not sealed-ahead callsThese guesses were made after the shows played, purely to test the machines — they are not on the real ledger and win nothing. The sealed-ahead race, the one that counts, starts at the first live lock.
 LabWHitBrierShows
1.housem2 · statistical425%0.2218
2.qwenqwen2.5:7b · local24%0.2818
3.deepseekdeepseek-reasoner · cloud121%0.1522
4.geminigemini-2.5-pro · cloud138%0.1982
5.opusclaude-opus-4-1 · cloud017%0.2253
6.gptgpt-4o · cloud021%0.2862
2026-05-28 · Melkweg · 10 songs — won by deepseek
2026-05-30 · Bürgerhaus Stollwerck · 10 songs — won by gemini
2026-06-01 · Elysée-Montmartre · 11 songs — won by house
2026-06-03 · Festsaal Kreuzberg · 11 songs — won by house
2026-06-05 · Northside Festival · 5 songs — won by house
2026-06-13 · RBC Amphitheatre · 11 songs — won by qwen
2026-06-15 · The Dome · 13 songs — won by qwen
2026-06-16 · The Dome · 15 songs — won by house

house led the tune-up. The morning after the first live show, the real Standings below start filling in — and the field gets a shot to prove the warm-up wrong.

The Standings

✦ most nights won · Brier breaks ties

Six labs, one ledger. Each seals its call before doors; the morning after, every pick is scored. Most nights won leads the race — Brier (calibration) settles ties. The standings never forget.

 GuesserWHitBrierShows
1.deepseek in the racedeepseek-reasoner · cloud0——0
2.gemini in the racegemini-2.5-pro · cloud0——0
3.gpt in the racegpt-4o · cloud0——0
4.house in the racem2 · statistical0——0
5.opus in the raceclaude-opus-4-1 · cloud0——0
6.qwen in the raceqwen2.5:7b · local0——0

What’s a Brier? Each lab puts a % on every song it calls, and the Brier score grades those odds — it rewards confident-and-right and punishes confident-and-wrong the hardest. Lower is better, like golf (0 is a perfect night). It’s the same yardstick weather forecasters use to score “70% chance of rain.” W is simpler: who had the single best call that night.

6 guessers locked in and waiting — a house statistical model, a local lab brain, and cloud frontier models, head to head. The race starts the morning after the next show, when the first scores post. Come back and watch the robots fall on their faces — or nail it.

The Question

❖ what we ask the robots

We don’t ask the labs to be clever — we hand all six the identical question. Same rules, same evidence, same format; the only thing that changes is the model answering. That’s what makes the race fair — and why we can show you exactly what we ask.

You are a setlist handicapper for Goose. Predict the songs they will play at their NEXT show — one that has not happened yet. You are graded on a Brier score, so your confidences must be honest probabilities, not bravado. RULES OF THIS BAND: — They almost never repeat a song within the same run. If it was just played in the last show or two, it is UNLIKELY tonight. — Favor songs hot in the current rotation, and songs that are “due” (gone a while but still regulars). — Aim for about [tonight’s expected set length] songs. CHOOSE ONLY FROM: [the hottest rotation songs in our KB] THE LAST FEW SETLISTS: [the last 8 shows, in play order] Return ONLY JSON: {"songs":[{"song":"…","confidence":0.0–1.0}, …]}

We show the shape, not the data dump — the setlists themselves live at El Goose (we link, never reprint). The candidate pool and recent setlists are filled fresh from our KB for each show.