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28 reckonings on the books Vol. I · No. 29

Next Setlist

· The Goose Edition ·  Saturday, September 26, 2026 · an almanac, printed as they play

Adm. One — No. 29
★ nextsetlist ★
Kentucky Expo Center — Louisville, KY
SAT · SEPTEMBER 26, 2026

Play Along

call it yourself

Think you can out-call the AI? Tap the songs you bet Goose plays tonight, 🔒 lock your surest one, 🎲 dare a deep cut for bonus — then watch the morning-after grade. No signup: you get a ticket stub to check tomorrow.

Got a ticket stub? Check your night.

The Big Board

provisional

The AI’s whole hand, face-up before the show — posted early and held. The only thing that moves before the lock: songs the band just played drop off once last night’s show grades. Then it seals exactly as shown.

The AI
gpt-5.1 · briefed by the house stats first
⌛ Provisional
  1. 1Hungersite41%
  2. 2Thatch38%
  3. 3Rockdale36%
  4. 4Animal33%
  5. 5Good Times // End Times32%
  6. 6Madalena32%
  7. 7Same Old Shenanigans30%
  8. 8Your Direction30%
  9. 9MEDIA29%
  10. 10Madhuvan29%
  11. 11Good2B28%
  12. 12Tumble24%
  13. 13Hot Love & The Lazy Poet23%
  14. 14POP22%
  15. 15Give It Time21%
15 songshow it’s built ↗
The People
you vs. the AI
▶ Open seat

The AI has laid its cards. Your move. Tap in the setlist you’d call, lock it before the show — graded the morning after, same ledger as the AI.

open seat · no signupplay along ↗
Get the morning line in your inbox —

⚿ Almost there — check your inbox and tap the link to confirm.

The over–under~15songs expected tonight — this reads as a full two-set night, and the last 12 two-set shows averaged 14.8. Each lab calls its 15 most likely; the count is a call too, settled in the Reckoning.
how this is figured

Not a season or all-time average — early club sets and today’s long-jam two-sets aren’t the same animal, so an all-years number would lie. We take the last 12 shows of the same type (a real two-set night vs a festival / one-set), count the songs in each, and average — rounded to the nearest song. As-of only: it never counts a show that hasn’t happened yet, so it’s the same number we could have posted that morning.

the 12 two-set shows it averaged (songs each, newest first)

Sep 213 Sep 115 Aug 3119 Aug 2816 Aug 2713 Aug 2415 Aug 2215 Aug 2112 Aug 1914 Aug 1816 Aug 1614 Aug 1515

Average 14.8 → ~15. The count is a call too — the Reckoning sets what we called next to what they actually played. Song counts only here — never a setlist (those live at El Goose).

The People

fans vs the AI

You against the AI. Every fan who plays seals a call before doors and rides the same ledger as it — base hit +1, a landed 🔒 Lock +3, a cold 🎲 Bold deep cut +5. Claim your stub to put a name on a card; beat the AI’s line and you’ve out-called it.

1your name here
ptscall it up top
first claimed fan takes this card

No one’s claimed a card yet — the board’s wide open. Call tonight’s setlist up top, save your stub, and the morning after you’re the first name on the people’s ladder.

Last Night’s Reckoning

box score

2026-08-29 — how the panel called it against what they played. Most songs called wins the night — honest as the morning.

10
Played
4
Most called · 44%
tied — called the mostlocal & medium4/10 songs called
runner-upgpt2/10 called
HitsArcadia · Dustin Hoffman · Flodown · Your Direction
We don’t print the whole setlist here — that’s their story to tell. See the official record → the full setlist at El Goose →.

The take — Local, Crstlbl, and Medium each called four right, swinging the game with precision that left House and GPT trailing far behind. It was a tight race, but in the end, it was a triumphant tie at the top for Local, Crstlbl, and Medium.

See every lab’s full call from this night — the back issue →

Every past reckoning — the back issues →


Tonight's Bookends

opener & encore call

Our call for how tonight bookends — the most likely OPENER, ENCORE, and set-CLOSER, weighed by who’s hot AND who tends to fill the role. A separate bet from the setlist; graded Saturday against what actually played.

Presence × role-rate, computed as-of tonight — no peeking at the result. The opener & encore call is graded after the show.

The Due List

what’s overdue

Repertoire regulars the band is overdue to dust off — ranked by how many of their OWN typical gaps they’ve blown past, not by raw time cold. Six shows cold means nothing for a rarity and a lot for a song they usually play every three. Smart money, not a long shot.

songcoldusual gapoverdue
Crosseyed & Painless2809.310.0×
Disco Inferno2809.810.0×
Escape (The Piña Colada Song)17617.010.0×
Ghostbusters Rap18917.410.0×
Me and Julio Down By The Schoolyard32812.510.0×
Feeling Hot Hot Hot4655.710.0×

Cadence counted from El Goose — the “overdue” multiple is shows-cold ÷ the song’s usual interval. Almanac fun, not a wager.

Bustout Watch

the long shots

The deep freeze — real regulars that haven’t surfaced in ages. A morning line just for fun (no money, just glory); the longer the wait, the longer the odds. If one of these drops, the room comes unglued.

Nobody’s reaching for the deep freeze tonight — the labs are playing the hits. The long shots below are still lurking.

songcoldlast seenthe line
Crosseyed & Painless2802022-12-18420-1
Disco Inferno2802022-12-18420-1
Escape (The Piña Colada Song)1762024-06-18264-1
Switchin'1642024-09-03246-1
The Old Man's Boat542026-04-1581-1
Elizabeth532026-04-1780-1
Lead the Way442026-05-0766-1
Doc Brown442026-05-0766-1

Counted from El Goose, never reprinted — the line is a bit of almanac fun, not a wager.


The Question

what we ask the AI

We don’t ask the AI to be clever on its own — it’s handed the house/crstlbl statistical read first, then asked to make its own call. Same rules, same evidence, same format every time. That’s why we can show you exactly what we ask.

You are a setlist handicapper for Goose. Predict the songs they will play at their NEXT show — one that has not happened yet. You win the night by calling the MOST of the actual setlist right, so name your best full set, not a timid few. RULES OF THIS BAND: — They almost never repeat a song within the same run. If it was just played in the last show or two, it is UNLIKELY tonight. — Favor songs hot in the current rotation, and songs that are “due” (gone a while but still regulars). — Aim for about [tonight’s expected set length] songs. OUR INTERNAL MODEL’S FORECAST: [the house + crstlbl statistical models’ blended ranked read — weigh it heavily, but you may deviate] CHOOSE ONLY FROM: [the hottest rotation songs in our KB] THE LAST FEW SETLISTS: [the last 8 shows, in play order] Return ONLY JSON: {"songs":[{"song":"…","confidence":0.0–1.0}, …]}

We show the shape, not the data dump — the setlists themselves live at El Goose (we link, never reprint). The candidate pool, recent setlists, and the internal forecast are filled fresh from our KB for each show.

Back Issues

the rolling record · 28 on file

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the newsletter

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Fellow Travelers

be a fan, not a leech

We’re fans first — these folks do the real work. Go give them a look.

  • El Goose the setlist archive that powers the Goose Edition
  • Dripfield a fan-built setlist archive for the Goose faithful
  • goosetheband.com the band’s own home
  • Fantasy Goose play the setlist as a fantasy game
  • Ted Honks more good stuff for the Goose faithful
  • nugs.net official live recordings — hear the night you guessed
  • Bandcamp buy the music straight from the artists
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