the wire — the call before each show (RSS) ↗
· The Goose Edition · Thursday, August 13, 2026 · an almanac, printed as they play
Think you can out-call the robots? Tap the songs you bet Goose plays tonight, 🔒 lock your surest one, 🎲 dare a deep cut for bonus — then watch the morning-after grade. No signup: you get a ticket stub to check tomorrow.
Tonight’s picks are in — the wall’s up. Results post the morning after the show. Got a stub? Check it below.
No show on the board right now. When the next one’s announced, this is where you call it before the robots do.
Got a ticket stub? Check your night.
Every lab’s whole hand, face-up before the show — posted early and held. The only thing that moves before the lock: songs the band just played drop off once last night’s show grades. Then it seals exactly as shown.
FILED SAT JUL 4 · PROVISIONAL UNTIL 5:00 PM ET THU
The robots have laid their cards. Your move. Tap in the setlist you’d call, lock it before the show — graded the morning after, same ledger as the bots.
† a lone call — no other lab took it. Most songs called the morning after wins the night. · ½ suite — a lab called only part of a suite that historically plays complete.
⚿ On the list — the call lands before each show. No spam, ever.
Not a season or all-time average — early club sets and today’s long-jam two-sets aren’t the same animal, so an all-years number would lie. We take the last 12 shows of the same type (a real two-set night vs a festival / one-set), count the songs in each, and average — rounded to the nearest song. As-of only: it never counts a show that hasn’t happened yet, so it’s the same number we could have posted that morning.
the 12 two-set shows it averaged (songs each, newest first)
Average 13.1 → ~13. The count is a call too — the Reckoning sets what we called next to what they actually played. Song counts only here — never a setlist (those live at El Goose).
the board leans · 4/5TumbleYeti
| song | crstlbl | gpt | local | medium | opus | called |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tumble | 4/5 | |||||
| Yeti | 4/5 | |||||
| Madhuvan | 3/5 | |||||
| Animal | 3/5 | |||||
| Dripfield | 3/5 | |||||
| Seekers on the Ridge pt I | 2/5 | |||||
| All I Need | 2/5 | |||||
| Turned Clouds | 2/5 | |||||
| SALT | 2/5 | |||||
| Jive I | 2/5 | |||||
| Give It Time | 2/5 | |||||
| Big Modern! | 2/5 | |||||
| Drive | 2/5 | |||||
| Slow Ready | 2/5 | |||||
| Arcadia | 2/5 | |||||
| Creatures | 2/5 | |||||
| Wysteria Lane | 2/5 | |||||
| Everything Must Go | 2/5 |
22 lone calls not shown here — marked † on the cards.
You against the machines. Every fan who plays seals a call before doors and rides the same ledger as the bots — base hit +1, a landed 🔒 Lock +3, a cold 🎲 Bold deep cut +5. Claim your stub to put a name on a card; beat the House line and you’ve out-called the robots.
No one’s claimed a card yet — the board’s wide open. Call tonight’s setlist up top, save your stub, and the morning after you’re the first name on the people’s ladder.
2026-07-04 — how the panel called it against what they played. Most songs called wins the night — honest as the morning.
The take — Crstlbl and medium delivered the decisive blow, a remarkable seven-for-thirteen that snatched victory from the jaws of a surprisingly accurate set of predictions, leaving the house utterly bewildered.
See every lab’s full call from this night — the back issue →
Before the real race, a dry run: each lab predicted the last 8 shows that already happened — leak-safe, seeing only what it would have the morning of each — and we scored them. A tune-up, not the main event.
| Lab | W | Hit | Shows | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | housem2 · statistical | 7 | 25% | 8 |
| 2. | opusclaude-opus-4-5 · cloud | 1 | 17% | 3 |
| 3. | qwen · cloud | 1 | 4% | 8 |
| 4. | gemini · cloud | 0 | 38% | 2 |
| 5. | deepseek · cloud | 0 | 21% | 2 |
| 6. | gptgpt-5.1 · cloud | 0 | 21% | 2 |
house led the tune-up. The morning after the first live show, the real Standings below start filling in — and the field gets a shot to prove the warm-up wrong.
The labs, one ledger. Each seals its call before doors; the morning after, every pick is scored. Whoever calls the most of the setlist wins the night, and most nights won leads the race — average hit-rate settles ties. The standings never forget. Each name is a seat, not a fixed model — the brain behind it can change at any time (the current one rides on every card); models are interchangeable.
| Guesser | W | Hit | Shows | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | gptgpt-5.1 · cloud | 6 | 25% | 12 |
| 2. | opusclaude-opus-4-5 · cloud | 6 | 25% | 12 |
| 3. | housem2 · statistical | 4 | 18% | 13 |
| 4. | crstlbllearned · on-box | 1 | 54% | 1 |
| 5. | mediumblend · every brain | 1 | 54% | 1 |
| 6. | gemini · cloud | 0 | 33% | 1 |
| 7. | localqwen2.5:7b-instruct-q4_0 · local | 0 | 17% | 8 |
| 8. | deepseek · cloud | 0 | 0% | 1 |
How a night is won: whoever calls the most of the songs actually played that night wins it — the eye test, plain and simple. W is nights won; Hit is the share of a lab’s picks that landed. A tied night is shared — every lab that calls the most takes the win; hit-rate only orders the standings.
Most nights won leads; hit-rate breaks ties. Public pick-’em and your own bot are coming — soon you’ll seal a call before doors and ride the same ledger as the machines.
★ Last time at Cal Coast Credit Union Amphitheater — Sep 26, 2024 · 12 songs. the setlist at El Goose →
Our call for how tonight bookends — the most likely OPENER, ENCORE, and set-CLOSER, weighed by who’s hot AND who tends to fill the role. A separate bet from the setlist; graded Saturday against what actually played.
The Killing Moon · Switchin' · Lead the Way
Praise You · One More Saturday Night · Magic Carpet Ride
Dragonfly · Factory Fiction · Head Over Heels
Presence × role-rate, computed as-of tonight — no peeking at the result. The opener & encore call is graded after the show.
Repertoire regulars the band is overdue to dust off — ranked by how many of their OWN typical gaps they’ve blown past, not by raw time cold. Six shows cold means nothing for a rarity and a lot for a song they usually play every three. Smart money, not a long shot.
| song | cold | usual gap | overdue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crosseyed & Painless | 264 | 9.3 | 10.0× |
| Disco Inferno | 264 | 9.8 | 10.0× |
| Me and Julio Down By The Schoolyard | 312 | 12.5 | 10.0× |
| Feeling Hot Hot Hot | 449 | 5.7 | 10.0× |
| Also Sprach Zarathustra | 421 | 17.7 | 10.0× |
| Boogie On Reggae Woman | 421 | 19.2 | 10.0× |
Cadence counted from El Goose — the “overdue” multiple is shows-cold ÷ the song’s usual interval. Almanac fun, not a wager.
The deep freeze — real regulars that haven’t surfaced in ages. A morning line just for fun (no money, just glory); the longer the wait, the longer the odds. If one of these drops, the room comes unglued.
Nobody’s reaching for the deep freeze tonight — the labs are playing the hits. The long shots below are still lurking.
| song | cold | last seen | the line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crosseyed & Painless | 264 | 2022-12-18 | 396-1 |
| Disco Inferno | 264 | 2022-12-18 | 396-1 |
| Escape (The Piña Colada Song) | 160 | 2024-06-18 | 240-1 |
| Switchin' | 148 | 2024-09-03 | 222-1 |
| Me & My Uncle | 54 | 2025-09-27 | 81-1 |
| Pumped Up Kicks | 50 | 2025-10-03 | 75-1 |
| Factory Fiction | 44 | 2025-12-13 | 66-1 |
| Time to Flee | 39 | 2026-04-14 | 58-1 |
Counted from El Goose, never reprinted — the line is a bit of almanac fun, not a wager.
The long view, kept the old way — what’s overdue, what’s hot, and where a song tends to land in the night. Counted from El Goose, not reprinted from it.
| Animal | 8 |
| So Ready | 7 |
| Hot Love & The Lazy Poet | 7 |
| Arcadia | 6 |
| Creatures | 6 |
tends to start the nightSwitchin' · Jam · Liza Jane
tends to send you homeTurn On Your Love Light · The Empress Of Organos · Dripfield
Trends are our compilation of El Goose event facts — we link out, never reprint a setlist. browse the source at El Goose →
We don’t ask the labs to be clever — every lab in the race gets the identical question. Same rules, same evidence, same format; the only thing that changes is the model answering. That’s what makes the race fair — and why we can show you exactly what we ask.
We show the shape, not the data dump — the setlists themselves live at El Goose (we link, never reprint). The candidate pool and recent setlists are filled fresh from our KB for each show.
Every reckoned night, newest first — tap a night for the full reckoning: what each lab called against what actually played. The record never scrolls away.
You’ve seen tonight’s calls — get the morning line in your inbox. We write when the robot grades itself (the hits, the blown calls) and when a new band joins the almanac. Nothing else, ever.
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