the wire — the call before each show (RSS) ↗
· The moe. Edition · Wednesday, September 30, 2026 · an almanac, printed as they play
Think you can out-call the AI? Tap the songs you bet moe. plays tonight, 🔒 lock your surest one, 🎲 dare a deep cut for bonus — then watch the morning-after grade. No signup: you get a ticket stub to check tomorrow.
Tonight’s picks are in — the wall’s up. Results post the morning after the show. Got a stub? Check it below.
No show on the board right now. When the next one’s announced, this is where you call it before the AI does.
Got a ticket stub? Check your night.
The AI’s whole hand, face-up before the show — posted early and held. The only thing that moves before the lock: songs the band just played drop off once last night’s show grades. Then it seals exactly as shown.
FILED FRI SEP 11 · PROVISIONAL UNTIL 5:00 PM ET WED
⚿ Almost there — check your inbox and tap the link to confirm.
Not a season or all-time average — early club sets and today’s long-jam two-sets aren’t the same animal, so an all-years number would lie. We take the last 12 shows of the same type (a real two-set night vs a festival / one-set), count the songs in each, and average — rounded to the nearest song. As-of only: it never counts a show that hasn’t happened yet, so it’s the same number we could have posted that morning.
the 12 two-set shows it averaged (songs each, newest first)
Average 14.4 → ~14. The count is a call too — the Reckoning sets what we called next to what they actually played. Song counts only here — never a setlist (those live at setlist.fm).
You against the AI. Every fan who plays seals a call before doors and rides the same ledger as it — base hit +1, a landed 🔒 Lock +3, a cold 🎲 Bold deep cut +5. Claim your stub to put a name on a card; beat the AI’s line and you’ve out-called it.
Claimed names only (anonymous picks still check their own stub). The AI and The Crowd (every fan’s picks pooled) ride along as benchmark cards — finish a season above the AI’s line and you’ve beaten it. Points post the morning after each show.
2026-08-14 — how the panel called it against what they played. Most songs called wins the night — honest as the morning.
The take — Trial roared into the lead with a perfect setlist prediction, leaving GPT and the house in the dust with paltry hits.
See every lab’s full call from this night — the back issue →
Our call for how tonight bookends — the most likely OPENER, ENCORE, and set-CLOSER, weighed by who’s hot AND who tends to fill the role. A separate bet from the setlist; graded Saturday against what actually played.
Crab Eyes · Captain America · Drums
Immigrant Song · I Wanna Be Sedated · Take the Money and Run
Plane Crash · Recreational Chemistry · Brent Black
Presence × role-rate, computed as-of tonight — no peeking at the result. The opener & encore call is graded after the show.
Repertoire regulars the band is overdue to dust off — ranked by how many of their OWN typical gaps they’ve blown past, not by raw time cold. Six shows cold means nothing for a rarity and a lot for a song they usually play every three. Smart money, not a long shot.
| song | cold | usual gap | overdue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Akimbo | 312 | 3.6 | 10.0× |
| Y.O.Y. | 109 | 8.1 | 10.0× |
| Bring It Back Home | 328 | 6.9 | 10.0× |
| Blue Eyed Son | 336 | 11.8 | 10.0× |
| lylelovit. | 446 | 15.3 | 10.0× |
| That Country Tune | 359 | 25.4 | 10.0× |
Cadence counted from setlist.fm — the “overdue” multiple is shows-cold ÷ the song’s usual interval. Almanac fun, not a wager.
The deep freeze — real regulars that haven’t surfaced in ages. A morning line just for fun (no money, just glory); the longer the wait, the longer the odds. If one of these drops, the room comes unglued.
Nobody’s reaching for the deep freeze tonight — the labs are playing the hits. The long shots below are still lurking.
| song | cold | last seen | the line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guitar | 1846 | 2000-04-15 | 499-1 |
| Livin' Again | 1484 | 2003-12-04 | 499-1 |
| Sweet Emotion | 1325 | 2005-10-16 | 499-1 |
| Roll | 1045 | 2009-05-29 | 499-1 |
| Brain Tuba | 792 | 2012-10-27 | 499-1 |
| Good Trip | 759 | 2013-03-07 | 499-1 |
| Sticks and Stones | 725 | 2013-09-29 | 499-1 |
| Backwoods | 713 | 2013-12-31 | 499-1 |
Counted from setlist.fm, never reprinted — the line is a bit of almanac fun, not a wager.
The long view, kept the old way — what’s overdue, what’s hot, and where a song tends to land in the night. Counted from setlist.fm, not reprinted from it.
| Meat | 9 |
| Buster | 7 |
| Happy Hour Hero | 7 |
| Rebubula | 6 |
| Wind It Up | 6 |
tends to start the nightDrums · Defrost · The Ghost of Ralph's Mom
tends to send you homeRebubula · Recreational Chemistry · Plane Crash
Trends are our compilation of setlist.fm event facts — we link out, never reprint a setlist. browse the source at setlist.fm →
We don’t ask the AI to be clever on its own — it’s handed the house/crstlbl statistical read first, then asked to make its own call. Same rules, same evidence, same format every time. That’s why we can show you exactly what we ask.
We show the shape, not the data dump — the setlists themselves live at setlist.fm (we link, never reprint). The candidate pool, recent setlists, and the internal forecast are filled fresh from our KB for each show.
Every reckoned night, newest first — tap a night for the full reckoning: what each lab called against what actually played. The record never scrolls away.
You’ve seen tonight’s calls — get the morning line in your inbox. We write when the robot grades itself (the hits, the blown calls) and when a new band joins the almanac. Nothing else, ever.
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