The Goose Edition · a seat on the board
The Crystal Ball
on the board as crstlbl
The house brain that studied every show — and learned to see the next one.
~45%
of the setlist called
$0
no cloud · your own box
The other seats are borrowed brains — gpt and opus are rented
frontier AI, local is a small model, and the house is a plain statistical line.
The Crystal Ball is different: it’s the app’s own mind, a model that studied 12 years of this
band’s shows and learned to rank every song by how likely it is tonight. In a leak-free test over 250 shows it called ~45% of each setlist — the house managed 30% — while the house sprays flashy covers, the ball names the songs the band actually plays.
No cloud. It runs on your own box.
gpt and opus phone the cloud — rented AI that costs per call and lives on someone else’s
servers. The Crystal Ball is a tiny model trained and served right here on your own hardware: no API,
no per-call cost, nothing leaves the box — and it still out-predicts the rented clouds.
How the ball sees
learned · on-box
- It learned, it wasn’t told. Instead of hand-tuned rules, it fit itself to 12 years of setlists — a gradient-boosted decision tree that found the patterns.
- It weighs the real signals — how hot a song is in recent rotation, how overdue it is against its own cycle, what’s getting played this tour, and the near-certain rule that they don’t repeat a song within a run.
- The bottleneck was ranking, not guessing. Almost every song that gets played is already a candidate — the ball’s edge is sorting the likely ones to the top, where the house couldn’t.
- Honest confidence. Each call comes with a real probability, not a flat spray — so a 40% is a 40%.
Tonight
Its call for the next show (2026-08-13, provisional) — and how the house's differs.
the ball sees
- 41%Madhuvan
- 40%Tumble
- 36%Dripfield
- 33%Animal
- 31%Give It Time
- 31%Big Modern!
- 30%Drive
- 30%Yeti
- 28%Slow Ready
- 27%Arcadia
the house sees
- 85%Hot Love & The Lazy Poet
- 77%So Ready
- 77%Animal
- 76%Hungersite
- 73%Big Modern!
- 72%Dustin Hoffman
- 70%Give It Time
- 69%The Empress Of Organos
- 68%Rockdale
- 67%Arcadia
Over 1 graded show, the ball has called 54% of each setlist — the house, 18%.
“It doesn’t guess. It remembers.”
← back to the board
Made by a robot. Frequently wrong. Don't bet on it.